编者按
迈入新的一年，我们或许尚未从韩国济州航空空难中恢复过来。回望 2024 年，全球航空业并非平稳。全球至少发生了35起客运飞机事故,这些事故无疑牵动了人心。但与此同时,2024 年也给航空业带来了希望。按照国际航协之前的预测,全球航空客运量在这一年首次恢复到2019年的水平。技术进步也推动了行业的发展,人工智能在航空领域的应用有望提升安全和效率。多轨道卫星网络的发展为互联航司带来了更多选择,中国航空业的崛起也为全球市场带来新的机遇。
总的来说，2025年的航空业值得期待！
近期新加坡樟宜机场咨询公司发布的《航空业的未来：重塑行业的2025年10大预测》, 值得一读。
中文原文来源：民航资源网
作为一名航空咨询师和从业者，笔者经常被问到：“航空业的下一个趋势是什么？”这是一个很好的问题，因为后疫情时代不仅给航空业带来了挑战，也逐渐打破了行业规范。这些由必要性驱动的变化，加速了电气化、人工智能（AI）、可持续性和运营效率等各方面的创新。航空业正处于技术与转型的十字路口，随着我们迈入2025年，以下是笔者对这些技术进步将如何重新定义航空业的预测：
1.电动飞机起飞
到2025年，电动飞机，包括eVTOL（电动垂直起降飞机）和支线电动飞机，将临近商业认证。这一进展标志着从传统喷气燃料推进到零排放电动发动机的转变。电动飞机将大幅降低运营成本，减少碳足迹，同时得益于其简化的机械结构，所需维护更少。
这种转变不仅是技术飞跃，也是对短途和城市交通的场景重构。采用电动飞机的航空公司将能够进军环保意识强的客群市场，为航空服务不足的地区提供负担得起且可持续的航线。由eVTOL支持的城市空中交通（UAM）网络将通过减少城市拥堵，创建城市中心与机场之间的无缝连接，以此进一步增强连通性。这些创新不仅将扩展航线网络，还将在未来几年重新定义我们对城市内部和区域之间交通的看法。
2. AI驱动的空中交通管制（ATC）
到2025年，AI将彻底改变空中交通管理，实时优化飞行路径、预测拥堵并实现日常任务的自动化。与今天的反应式系统（空管人员在干扰发生时才会作出反应）不同，AI将主动提出解决方案，提高空域利用率并减少延误。
这些系统已经在支持性角色中进行测试，最终将接管高度拥堵空域的决策。更快的周转时间、更少的延误和更低的燃油消耗，将提升运营效率和乘客满意度。随着繁忙空域的吞吐量增加，AI还将推迟对成本高昂的基础设施扩展的需求，为不断增长的乘客数量提供可扩展且可持续的解决方案。
3. AI在飞机和机场维护中的应用
由AI驱动的预测性维护将成为航空业中游戏规则的改变者。通过持续监测飞机和机场系统，AI将在潜在故障升级之前识别它们，使行业从反应性维修转向主动解决方案。这一转变至关重要，因为由于机械故障造成的非计划停机每年使航空公司损失数百万。
实施AI驱动的系统将导致更少的延误、更高的机队利用率和整体运营效率的提高。航空公司将受益于更低的维护成本和更高的航班可用性，而采用AI集成系统的机场将提高地面运营的可靠性。这些变化还将促进原始设备制造商（OEM）、航空公司和机场之间的更大合作，打破运营壁垒并促进创新。
4.智能机场
机场正在演变为复杂的技术中心，到2025年，生物识别系统、物联网（IoT）赋能的行李追踪和AI驱动的乘客流量管理等创新将重新定义旅行体验。今天的半自动化系统往往效率不足，但下一代智能机场将创建无缝的自动化流程，减少等待时间，提高旅行效率。
其财务好处同样令人信服。心情愉悦的乘客往往会在零售和餐饮场所花费更多，从而推动机场收入增长。此外，精简的运营和更少的拥堵将提高机场排名，吸引更多航空公司和旅客。这一转变凸显了机场在航空生态系统中作为关键赋能者的角色。这也将改变许多地区的技术人力短缺问题，并重新定义机场将招聘的人员类型。
5.可持续航空燃料（SAF）规模化
可持续航空燃料（SAF）将在减少航空碳足迹方面发挥重要作用，预计到2025年，SAF混合燃料将占航空燃料使用量的15%。虽然目前SAF的推广受到成本高昂和产量有限问题的制约，但基于废料的原料技术的进步将推动规模化和成本下降。
使用SAF的航空公司将享有竞争优势，因为对于旅客来说，可持续性正成为一个重要差异化因素。更低的碳抵消要求和潜在的补贴将降低成本，而与绿色能源公司的合作将解锁新的收入来源。伴随着地面设备的电气化，SAF代表了朝着航空可持续性整体方法迈出的重要一步。
6.天基联网服务
由卫星服务提供商主导的基于卫星的互联网，将在2025年前重新定义机上互联服务。宽带级网速将成为可能，从而解决当今机上互联服务速度缓慢、不可靠且价格高昂的挑战。对乘客而言，机上互联服务将不再是一种奢侈，而是一种期望。
这一转变将提升乘客体验，尤其是对于重视飞行期间生产力的商务旅客而言。这也将为航空公司开辟新的收入机会，因为付费Wi-Fi服务和个性化数字服务将成为中心。互联服务的增强将促使航空公司重新思考机上产品，为更多量身定制的娱乐和服务铺平道路。
7. AI实时天气
AI驱动的系统将通过整合实时数据来优化飞行路径并避免颠簸，从而彻底改变天气管理。目前，决策依赖于飞行员和调度员手动解释数据，往往导致次优航线。AI将实现更快且更准确的调整，确保飞行更加平稳和安全。
这一进展将提升乘客舒适度，减少因颠簸造成的伤害可能性，增强满意度。优化的航线也将节省燃料，降低运营成本，强化航空公司对安全和效率的承诺。随着2024年新加坡航空航班颠簸等事件使这一问题为公众所知，AI驱动的解决方案作为安全高效应用的工具以及独立模块，其紧迫性变得越来越高。
8.预订和替代收入模式
超低成本航空公司将推出区域旅行的固定费率预订模式，类似于过去流行的航空通票。这种创新方法将满足寻求灵活性和可负担性的常旅客，同时颠覆传统票务实践。
对航空公司而言，来自预订的可预见的经常性收入将减少对起伏不定的票务销售的依赖。乘客将受益于简化的旅行规划和潜在的整体成本降低，从而鼓励更频繁的旅行。这一模式可以将航空旅行进一步商品化，同时根据市场的不同（机场与旅行业也可参加该市场）将航空旅行个性化，以满足不断变化的消费者需求。
9.增强航空业网络安全
随着航空业变得更加数字化，到2025年，全面的网络安全措施将至关重要。主动监控和威胁缓解将取代今天的反应性方法，保护乘客数据、运营系统和飞机联网。
IT和OT（操作技术）系统的整合将确保端到端的安全，解决从订票平台到飞机航空电子设备的各类漏洞。强大的网络安全不仅将保护航空公司免受代价高昂的信息泄露，还将建立与乘客的信任，使航空公司成为可靠和具有前瞻性思维的服务提供者。
10.可持续性和技术承诺/认证
航空公司和机场将通过SAF、电动飞机、电气化的地面设备和碳捕捉技术的结合，采用积极的净零和运营零排放战略。尽管当前碳抵消措施主导了可持续性努力，但2025年将标志着向直接减少碳排放的转变。
这种方法将吸引关注可持续性的基金的投资，提升航空公司在环保意识强烈的旅客当中的声誉。对积极主动的可持续措施的重视将确保航空业继续负责任地增长，满足监管要求和对更加环保未来的需求。我们或许需要审视当前的认证以及航空公司和机场在服务交付和整体表现方面的竞争。
结论
2025年的航空业将以更明显的创新、可持续性和变革为特点。从电动飞机到AI驱动的系统，这些进展不仅是技术里程碑，更是提升竞争力、效率和盈利能力的战略机会。航空业将迎接一个既令人兴奋又负责任的未来，更重要的是航空业的运营方式。
——本文作者樟宜机场国际公司咨询业务董事总经理Sher Khan
作者简介
Sher Khan，现任新加坡樟宜机场咨询公司董事总经理，曾任职于新加坡航空，樟宜机场集团有限公司等，拥有30年航空业从业经验。
英文原文来源：
The Future of Aviation: 2025 Predictions That Will Reshape the Industry
As an aviation consultant and practitioner, I’m often asked, “What’s next in aviation?” It’s a timely question because the post-pandemic era has not only challenged but also chipped away norms in the industry. These changes, driven by necessity, have fast-tracked innovations in electrification, artificial intelligence (AI), sustainability, and aspects of operational efficiency. Aviation stands at the crossroads of technology and transformation, and as we move toward 2025, here are my predictions for how these advancements will redefine the industry.
1. Electric Aircraft Take Off
Electric aircraft, including eVTOLs (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing vehicles) and regional electric planes, are on the brink of commercial certification by 2025. This advancement marks a shift from conventional jet fuel propulsion to zero-emission electric engines. Electric planes will drastically lower operational costs, reduce carbon footprints, and require less maintenance thanks to their streamlined mechanics.
This shift is not just a technological leap but a reimagination of short-haul and urban mobility. Airlines incorporating electric aircraft will tap into eco-conscious markets, providing affordable and sustainable routes to underserved regions. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) networks, supported by eVTOLs, will further transform connectivity by cutting urban congestion and creating seamless links between city centers and airports. These innovations will not only expand route networks but also redefine how we perceive mobility within cities and across regions in the coming years.
2. AI-Driven Air Traffic Control (ATC)
AI will revolutionize air traffic management by 2025, enabling real-time optimization of flight paths, congestion prediction, and automation of routine tasks. Unlike today’s reactive systems, where controllers respond to disruptions as they occur, AI will proactively propose solutions, improving airspace utilization and reducing delays.
These systems are already being tested in supportive roles and will eventually take over decision-making in highly congested airspaces. Faster turnaround times, fewer delays, and reduced fuel consumption will enhance operational efficiency and passenger satisfaction. With increased throughput in busy airspaces, AI will also delay the need for costly infrastructure expansions, offering a scalable and sustainable solution for rising passenger volumes.
3. AI in Aircraft and Airport Maintenance
Predictive maintenance powered by AI will be a game-changer in aviation. By continuously monitoring aircraft and airport systems, AI will identify potential faults before they escalate, shifting the industry from reactive repairs to proactive solutions. This transition is crucial, as unplanned downtime due to mechanical failures costs airlines millions annually.
The implementation of AI-driven systems will lead to fewer delays, higher fleet utilization, and overall improvement in operational efficiency. Airlines will benefit from reduced maintenance costs and increased flight availability, while airports adopting AI-integrated systems will improve the reliability of ground operations. These changes will also encourage greater collaboration between OEMs, airlines, and airports, breaking down operational silos and fostering innovation.
4. Smart Airports
Airports are evolving into sophisticated hubs of technology, and by 2025, innovations such as biometric systems, IoT-enabled baggage tracking, and AI-driven passenger flow management will redefine the travel experience. Today’s semi-automated systems often fall short in efficiency, but the next generation of smart airports will create seamless, automated processes that reduce wait times and enhance journey efficiency.
The financial benefits are equally compelling. Satisfied passengers tend to spend more at retail and dining outlets, boosting airport revenues. Moreover, streamlined operations and reduced congestion will improve airport rankings, attracting more airlines and travelers. This transformation underscores the role of airports as critical enablers in the aviation ecosystem. This will also change the technical manpower shortage in many regions and also redefine the kind of staff that will be hired at the airport.
5. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Scaling
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will become a significant player in reducing aviation’s carbon footprint, with SAF blends expected to make up 15% of jet fuel usage by 2025. While today SAF adoption is hindered by high costs and limited production, advancements in waste-based feedstock technology will drive scalability and cost reductions.
Airlines leveraging SAF will enjoy a competitive edge as sustainability becomes a key differentiator for travelers. Reduced carbon offset requirements and potential subsidies will lower costs, while partnerships with green energy firms will unlock new revenue streams. Alongside electrification of ground equipment, SAF represents a major step toward creating a holistic approach to sustainability in aviation.
6. Space-Enabled Connectivity
Satellite-based internet, led by providers satellite service provider, will redefine in-flight connectivity by 2025. Broadband-level speeds will become available, addressing today’s challenges of slow, unreliable, and expensive connections. For passengers, connectivity will no longer be a luxury but an expectation.
This shift will enhance the passenger experience, particularly for business travellers who value productivity during flights. It will also open new revenue opportunities for airlines, as paid Wi-Fi services and personalized digital offerings take centre stage. The increased connectivity will drive a rethink of onboard offerings, paving the way for more tailored entertainment and services.
7. AI for Real-Time Weather Adaptation
AI-powered systems will revolutionize weather management by integrating real-time data to optimize flight paths and avoid turbulence. Currently, decisions rely on pilots and dispatchers interpreting data manually, often leading to suboptimal routing. AI will enable faster and more accurate adjustments, ensuring smoother and safer flights.
This advancement will enhance passenger comfort, reducing the likelihood of turbulence-related injuries and boosting satisfaction. Optimized routing will also save fuel, cutting operational costs and reinforcing airlines’ commitment to safety and efficiency. With events like the 2024 Singapore Airlines turbulence incident bringing this issue to light, AI-driven solutions are becoming increasingly urgent both as a tool and a stand-alone module for safe and efficient adoption.
8. Subscription and Alternative-Revenue Models
Flat-fee subscription models for regional travel will be introduced by ultra-low-cost carriers, reminiscent of the air passes popular in the past. This innovative approach will cater to frequent travellers seeking flexibility and affordability while disrupting traditional ticketing practices.
For airlines, the predictability of recurring revenue from subscriptions will reduce reliance on fluctuating ticket sales. Passengers will benefit from simplified travel planning and potentially lower overall costs, encouraging more frequent travel. This model could further commoditize air travel while simultaneously personalizing it to meet evolving consumer demands depending on markets in which airports and travel industry may also partake in.
9. Enhanced Cybersecurity in Aviation
As aviation becomes more digital, comprehensive cybersecurity measures will be critical by 2025. Proactive monitoring and threat mitigation will replace today’s reactive approaches, safeguarding passenger data, operational systems, and aircraft connectivity.
The integration of IT and OT (Operational Technology) systems will ensure end-to-end security, addressing vulnerabilities in everything from booking platforms to aircraft avionics. Robust cybersecurity will not only protect against costly breaches but also build trust with passengers, positioning airlines as reliable and forward-thinking service providers.
10. Sustainability and Technological Pledges/Certification
Airlines and airports will adopt aggressive net-zero and operational-zero strategies through a combination of SAF, electric aircraft, electrified ground equipment, and carbon capture technologies. While offsets currently dominate sustainability efforts, 2025 will mark a shift toward direct emissions reductions.
This approach will attract investments from sustainability-focused funds and bolster airlines’ reputations among environmentally conscious travellers. The emphasis on proactive sustainability measures will ensure that aviation continues to grow responsibly, meeting both regulatory requirements and the demands of a greener future. There may be a need to look at the current certifications and ranking the airlines and airport vie for in terms of service delivery and overall performance.
Conclusion
Aviation in 2025 will be defined by more pronounced innovation, sustainability, and transformation changes. From electric aircraft to AI-driven systems, these advancements are not just technological milestones but strategic opportunities to enhance competitiveness, efficiency, and profitability. The industry is set to embrace a future that is both exciting and responsible. And more importantly how it operates.
What are your thoughts on these predictions? Do you agree, or do you see additional trends shaping the industry? Let’s start a conversation—your insights are invaluable to this dialogue!
——Sher Khan，Managing Director Consultancy at Changi Airports International
（图文素材仅用于学习交流，如涉及权益，请联系删除。）
